Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
